PACIFIC – Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released modelling showing the latest El Niño cycle is over, but could now lead to a wet winter after a devastating 14 months of drought and famine across the Pacific.

Rains have returned to many of the nations badly hit by the so-called “Godzilla” El Niño event, but replanting and food stocks remain tight.

In Papua New Guinea, where hundreds of thousands have suffered under drought conditions since March 2015, water quality remains very poor, while it is predicted that severe food shortages will continue through the first half of 2016.

On the other side of the Pacific, piles of dead whales, salmon, sardines and clams blamed on the weather phenomenon clogged Chile’s beaches in recent months.

In the north, Palau saw depleted rivers and dams, forcing the government to declare a state of emergency, appeal for overseas aid, and signal the loss of most of the unique inhabitants of its Jellyfish Lake.

The Chilean fisheries institute IFOP classed the El Niño as “one of the most intense in the past 65 years”.

Elise Chandler, a climate scientist at BoM, said the tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to neutral and more normal conditions can be expected for the next few months at least.

“Over the last few weeks it’s gone back into that neutral area in both the oceans and the atmosphere, indicating that the event is now finished,” Chandler told Pacific Beat.

“During an event they both work together to sustain an El Niño or a La Niña, and their associated conditions. Since April we have seen that coupling has wound down.”

The bureau’s modelling shows ocean surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight. Waters beneath the surface have also cooled.

But the charity Care Australia said the regional emergency was far from over.

“The rains have returned in some parts, but millions are still dealing with severe food shortages that have resulted in successive failed harvests,” said Care Australia’s emergency response coordinator, Stefan Knollmayer, in a statement.

He added that flooding La Niña rains raised the potential for an increase in waterborne disease.

Forecaster Michael Knepp told the ABC that conditions were back to neutral and the bureau was now on La Niña watch, where rainfall in winter and spring is above average.

“That’s not a certain thing, just something to keep an eye on over the next few months,” he said.

Chandler said while there was about a 40 per cent chance of a La Niña developing historically after an El Niño event, BoM’s climate models have this probability a little bit higher.

“There’s quite a lot of cool water below the surface in the Pacific, so we’re estimating there’s about a 50 per cent chance of a La Niña developing over the next few months,” she said.

La Niña signals higher than average rainfall, which could lead to extensive floods.

“Unfortunately we get the opposite of what we experience during El Nino, so for those countries in the South Pacific like Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu – which have had a long dry period – typically they’ll get wetter conditions,” Chandler said.

“Places like Tuvalu and Kiribati, which experienced near-record rainfall over the past 12 months, that’s likely to decline and conditions are likely to dry out.

“Unfortunately, the dry conditions experienced through the far South Pacific are expected to continue on towards the end of the year.”

- Pacific Beat