PACIFIC – Tonga’s island groups of Tongatapu, Vava’u, Ha’apai and ‘Eua escaped major damage from Tropical Cyclone Winston as it passed through the islands with wind gusts of 120km.

It was the first pass of what is now a Category Three storm and currently intensifying in northern Tongan waters.

Weather forecasters warn that Winston has a high chance of turning around and coming back, and may hit Vava’u with greater force on Friday, and then Ha’apai and Tongatapu on Monday – although the track may change at any time.

Matangi Tonga reports ‘Winston Round Two’ could likely to do more damage than ‘Round One’.

The abundance of warm waters in the Pacific is one reason why Cyclone Winston is predicted to turn and impact Tonga and Fiji for a second time.

The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre advised that Winston was likely to spin sharply in a reverse direction, increasing in intensity and possibly threatening Vava’u and Ha’apai for a second time.

A climate scientist at New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, or NIWA, Nava Fedaeff, said El Niño meant the warm waters provided plenty of scope for cyclones to change track.

“One of the reasons why is just because of El Niño, there are larger areas of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and you need to have warm water, at least 26.5 degrees Celcius, to have tropical cyclones.

“And when you’ve got a bigger pool, they’ve just got more places to go.”

Fedaeff said the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern was also in a negative phase, meaning warmer than usual waters in the Western Pacific.

Tonga’s disaster management office is Thursday morning dispatching a team to fly to the Vava‘u Group to assess the damage caused by Cyclone Winston.

The Category Three storm came close to Vava‘u overnight and is now tracking eastwards on a path that may take it between Tonga’s far northern Niuas and neighbouring Niue.

The disaster office has already received reports of damage on Vava‘u with trees and power down, obstructions on the airport runway, roads blocked and some houses having lost roofs.

Earlier the cyclone brushed past Tongatapu and the Ha‘apai group, causing minimal damage.

“There have been no casualties, so far,” Deputy Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni said and added that the islands had escaped any major destruction.

“We are thankful there has been no report of lives lost or injuries in all of the islands,” he said.

Evacuation centres had opened at church halls and housed around 140 people each in both Ha’apai and Vava’u as the cyclone passed over.

“Although the cyclone has passed it is forecasted that it may turn around and come back but we will know tomorrow its route and what islands will be affected on its path. We advise people to prepare and remain cautious,” he said.

A a spokesperson from the Governor’s Office in Neiafu reported damage mainly to the rooftops of homes blown off in some villages. There were trees down and some power lines damaged but Neiafu’s power was back on, she said.

On Monday night it caused widesperead flooding and damage to crops in the southern islands of Fiji.

Meanwhile a cyclone warning remains in place for Niue.

- PNC sources