International relations expert Geoffrey Miller and former National MP and minister Alfred Ngaro offer insights into the escalating tensions between New Zealand and the Cook Islands.

As the relationship between the Cook Islands and New Zealand faces difficulties, an international relations expert has described the situation as a “diplomatic debacle”.

Speaking on Pacific Mornings, Geoffrey Miller agrees that New Zealand’s public statements have shifted towards “megaphone diplomacy”.

“It's a ‘diplomatic debacle’ is the phrase that I've used to describe the situation. It's all rather unedifying,” Miller said.

He expressed regret over how the situation has unfolded, saying, “It would have been good if this had been avoided because it is all quite unseemly.”

Miller says public discourse over the situation is unusual, from the starkness of recent statements from Foreign Minister Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters’ office indicating that New Zealand and the Cook Islands do not see eye to eye on numerous issues.

“The fact that the second statement that came out on Sunday, saying the Cook Islands had failed to properly consult with New Zealand, you don't normally see it at all.

“These things are just handled quite quietly behind the scenes quite carefully and you don't actually see the spat in full flight.”

Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown is in Beijing to sign a partnership agreement, marking the Cook Islands’ first state visit to China in over a decade.

But New Zealand claims it was not properly consulted regarding this visit, violating what Peters describes as a key aspect of the long-standing Joint Centenary Declaration between the two countries.

The declaration, signed in 2001, reaffirms the sovereign status of the Cook Islands while emphasising the need for consultation on foreign policy matters.

Miller says there appears to be a “media campaign and a public pressure” initiative in response to failed behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

“So Winston Peters, Christopher Luxon, they're using what New Zealand's opposition leader Chris Hipkins has called megaphone diplomacy.

“And I think it's quite a good description, in a way, to try and put pressure on Mark Brown publicly after the behind-the-scenes negotiations seem to have failed.”

Miller also pointed to historical tensions contributing to the current standoff, including disputes over the Cook Islands’ attempts at gaining UN membership, issues concerning Cook Islands passports, and growing concerns about China’s influence in the Pacific, creating an atmosphere of mistrust.

Consultation or control?

At the heart of the disagreement lies a difference in the interpretation of the Joint Centenary Declaration.

While New Zealand insists that consultation is mandatory, Miller contends that the text is ambiguous.

“If you look under clause four, and I'm looking at it now, it's quite contradictory.

“It says that in the conduct of its foreign affairs, the Cook Islands interacts with the international community as a sovereign and independent state.

“And then later on in the same clause, it says that the signatories undertake to consult regularly on foreign affairs matters.”

Miller argues that the declaration confirms the Cook Islands’ sovereignty and independence. He noted that clause five specifies that the government of the Cook Islands has the capacity to enter into treaties and international agreements independently.

“So you could argue if you're Mark Brown, that you've got every right to be doing what you're doing.

“And he has consulted, perhaps not at the level that New Zealand would like, but he has consulted.

“He was in Wellington in November and at the Beehive and he had meetings with Winston Peters and Christopher Luxon. It's clear they don't agree. But I think you could argue that he has actually consulted with New Zealand about all of these things.”

A history of strained relations

Former National MP Cook Islander Alfred Ngaro echoed concerns about the breakdown of communication and increasing mistrust between the two governments.

He stressed on Pacific Mornings, that recent disputes, those related to cryptocurrency proposals and ongoing issues with Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, have eroded public confidence.

“There's two key things when we talk about politics in regards to the votes and getting the numbers to hold office and those two principles are trust and confidence,” Ngaro said.

“And how do you do that? You have to have good communication with your communities, with the key stakeholders, so that they have confidence that you're doing the right thing.”

Ngaro, who served as a New Zealand minister during trilateral negotiations involving the Cook Islands and China, noted that the relationship with Beijing has been fraught with challenges, particularly the construction of courthouses and police stations in the Cook Islands.

Political consequences and future leadership

The diplomatic fallout is not only occurring on an international scale but is also causing a domestic backlash in the Cook Islands.

Ngaro warned that Prime Minister Brown must prioritise rebuilding trust with his people.

“Good intentions are not enough when you're governing a country. “You also need to be able to have really smart advice around you and be aware of what's happening.

“Like geopolitically, there's huge shifts with the USA and with Donald Trump becoming the new president.

“Sometimes back to basics has got to be the thing that's important and that will resonate more for our people than anything else, than any other international treaty or agreement.

“Yes, internationally, it may sound and look good with all bells and whistles, but at home, in our little villages, that's not what people actually understand.”

When asked if he would consider entering Cook Islands politics, Ngaro remained diplomatic but did not dismiss the idea.

“I think one of the challenges is about our own people. You go back home and you hear, ‘hey, can you speak the language? Are you truly a Cook Islander?’

“To be honest, sometimes we can become our own worst enemy.

“And all I say is this, I've learned in my time in service, you don't live for the community, you live with them.

“I love the Cook Islands… we go there all the time.

“We've got a lot of heart and we've got a lot to give and I think that maybe it's time for people who have got experience to be able to offer.”

- 'Alakihihifo Vailala/ Pacific Media Network