The New Zealand government’s decision to review its development aid in Kiribati has “all the hallmarks of a diplomatic tiff” and could “push away” the Micronesian island nation closer to China, a regional political commentator says.

On Monday, Foreign Minister Winston Peters' office confirmed that Aotearoa is "reviewing our development programme in Kiribati" after its President and Foreign Minister Taneti Maamau snubbed a meeting with him after "months-long-effort".

"This was especially disappointing because the visit was to be the first in over five years by a New Zealand Minister to Kiribati - and was the result of a months-long effort to travel there," a spokesperson for the Minister told RNZ.

Between 2021-2024, New Zealand provided NZ$102 million to Kiribati across key sectors, including health, education, fisheries, economic development, and climate resilience.

"It's certainly true that there are difficulties in the relationship between Wellington and Kiribati, and indeed between Canberra and Kiribati ever since Taneti Maamau switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019," Victoria University's professor in comparative politics Jon Fraenkel said.

He said the Kiribati government has grown much closer to China.

"Simply cutting aid usually works in the reverse direction to kind of push countries away rather than draw them in," he said.

"After all, Kiribati does have alternatives, both in China and elsewhere.

Professor Frankel said China has shown some interest in setting up some kind of naval facility on the island of Canton.

"What's come about seems to be very little, but that is the possibility and a danger for both New Zealand and Australia."

Kiribati President and Foreign Minister Taneti Maamau. AFP/25012703

Maamau returned for his third term in office last year. In 2022, his government withdrew from the Pacific Islands Forum, threatening Pacific regionalism.

However, Kiribati returned to the Forum after a personal, in-person apology by the Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka in early 2023.

"Kiribati did a push to leave or distance itself from the Pacific Island Forum after controversies concerning the appointment of a secretary general of the Forum that wasn't from Micronesia," Professor Fraenkel said.

"And usually making foreign policy on the basis of diplomatic tiff like this is not usually the best approach."

He believes there have been "some missteps" and Peters is feeling offended by what has happened.

"And that's very unfortunate. But when these kinds of incidents happen, after some time, there are some possibilities arise for patching up those kinds of differences.

"It's usually best not to have a kind of immediate knee-jerk reaction," he added.

RNZ