A strong wind warning and damaging heavy swell alert have been issued for all southern group islands, including Rarotonga.

In a statement posted on its Facebook page yesterday, the Emergency Management Cook Islands said: “All southern group islands are expecting windy conditions and very rough seas over the next couple of days as a low-pressure trough moves through the southern group. Please take care if you are out and about and note the updated warnings from the Cook Islands Meteorological Service.”

According to the Meteorological Service weather bulletin issued yesterday afternoon, a strong wind warning remains in force for the land areas and waters of southern and northern Cook Islands.

A coastal inundation warning has also been issued for all coastal areas of southern Cooks as well as damaging heavy swell alert for all waters of southern Cook Islands.

“A high-pressure system to the far south of Southern Cooks generates and directs damaging heavy southerly swells and strong winds towards the group,” the weather office said. “Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain lies to the east of the group and slowly moving towards the country.”

“A trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain affects Northern Cooks. Meanwhile, a moist north to northwest wind flow prevails over the group.”

The forecast to midnight for the Southern Cook Islands includes sea flooding of coastal areas especially during high tides, easterly winds 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 35 knots and damaging heavy swells of up to 4.5 metres.

Over land areas and waters, easterly winds 20 to 30 knots, gusting to 35 knots is forecast with rough to very rough seas. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms were forecast, with showers increasing to rain, heavy at times, and squally thunderstorms were expected last night.

For the northern Cooks, north to northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots, and rough seas have been forecast.

“Occasional rain, heavy at times and few thunderstorms.”

Cook Islands is in the cyclone season which runs from November to April.

The risk of tropical cyclone activity for the Southern Cook Islands is “reduced” and “unlikely” for the Northern Cook Islands, according to New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Metservice.

Maara Vaiimene, director of the Cook Islands Meteorological Service, earlier told this newspaper that their analysis of the tropical cyclone outlook from NIWA aligns with the current ENSO condition, which is a Neutral Phase with weak La Niña-like conditions.

The risk outlook has classified the Northern and Southern Cook Islands in that category, “however the TC Outlook prediction for both is zero to one developing within the EEZ of the Cook Islands”.

Based on historical tropical outlook, Vaiimene said the accuracy has been pretty good, with a success rate between 70 and 80 per cent.

“For example, the TC Outlook from October 2023 for the 2023/2024 Season, predicted TC for Cook Islands between two to three for the season, 2 x TC formed, TC Nat and TC Osai, and 1 x Tropical Depression (TD10F) formed within the EEZ of the Cook Islands,” he explained.