While Rarotonga has been hit by some very wet weather lately, the outlook for Christmas-New Year is slightly brighter, says Cook Islands Met Service director Arona Ngari.

However, if you’re hoping to celebrate the day with a family picnic on the beach, it might pay to have a “Plan B”.

He’s predicting the heavy rain we’ve experienced will ease by Thursday or Friday, thanks to easterly winds and a high pressure system to the south. By Christmas Day on Sunday, he says there’s a likelihood of showers which will continue on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, thanks to a low pressure system moving over the island. However, the showers are likely to be light.

“That’s the good news – the rain will be nowhere near as intense as it has been, and the showers will be more gentle,” Ngari says.

Earlier fears of a drought were unfounded, and Ngari says looking back at historic weather patterns, long dry periods around November are actually nothing new.

“People have short memories – they often forget how the weather has been in the past.”

This year Ngari is holidaying for a couple of weeks in New Zealand, but he’ll still be keeping a close eye on the weather in the Cook Islands – and he’ll be back for the most unpredictable part of the cyclone season.

He says there’s a low likelihood of cyclones during the first half of the season, but it’s a different story in February, the most active month for tropical storms in our area, when cyclones could originate in the New Caledonia region.

The cyclone season in the Cook Islands officially ends in April.