Professor Christopher Fleming, who specialises in natural resource economics and tourism economics, among other areas of research, at Australia’s Griffith University, will share two cost-benefit analyses of seabed mining at the Deep Ocean Symposium in Rarotonga on October 31.

A cost-benefit analysis compares the costs, or cons, of an action and its benefits, or pros. Fleming’s analyses will cover two contexts: Fiji, the government of which supports a precautionary moratorium on seabed mining, and the Cook Islands, the government of which is actively promoting seabed mining.

According to a statement from symposium organiser Te Puna Vai Marama (TPVM), the Cook Islands Centre for Research, Fleming will discuss how both countries have come up with “such contrasting conclusions” and will introduce two recent pieces of economic research to this end.

Fleming’s talk is based on a model created by The Pacific Community (SPC) and consulting company Cardno in 2016, which quantifies such costs as carbon emissions, potential leaks, and the change in environmental services provided by the seabed. The model also relies on a 3 per cent royalty on gross revenue, a withholding tax of 15 per cent, corporate income tax of 28 per cent, and a resource rent of 20 per cent on super, or irregularly high, profits.

Fleming’s talk also references a study he co-authored in 2016, which concludes that direct benefits from seabed mining to Fiji are “likely to be relatively small”. The study suggests that costs include impacts to tourism and commercial fishing, in which even small reductions can have “significant economic consequences”.

According to the study, direct benefits of seabed mining to host nations will be small, though tax and royalty revenues could be “potentially significant” albeit they “may not be as large as initially hoped”. Benefits to mining companies and overseas consumers will be “potentially significant” also, per Fleming’s research.

The larger point of Fleming’s presentation, he says, is that an objective economic case for seabed mining is yet to be made for the Cook Islands.

“Why did I agree to speak?” Fleming wrote in an email. “Because I have seen first hand the damage (terrestrial) mining companies can inflict on host communities and their surroundings, and their dismissive attitude to the concerns of locals – particularly in developing countries. And I am not convinced that the people of the Cook Islands will benefit from seabed mining – the economic case has not been made.”

Fleming joins a cast of other speakers from as far away as Europe at the Deep Ocean Symposium on October 31. Registration is free for Cook Islanders.

To attend, register at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/deep-ocean-symposium-is-mining-the-seabed-undermining-our-future-tickets-996571059867?aff=oddtdtcreator.