Two Cook Islanders are at the helm of new Pacific research into population dynamics of the Pacific - home to a population of 13 million – projected to become 20 million by 2050.

Professor Yvonne Underhill-Sem MNZM, co-lead of the University of Auckland research team, and Dr Tina Newport are working alongside Dr Roannie Ng Shiu (from Samoa) on the comprehensive report.

The report, released yesterday, is the first product of the University’s major Pacific-led research project on climate mobility.

The research is looking at where and how climate-related events and environmental changes (such as cyclones, floods, drought, salination of soil and drinking water, heat stress, and sea level rise) will impact Pacific people’s decisions to ‘stay in place’, or to move: whether within countries, around the region, or beyond, including to NZ.

Prof Underhill-Sem hopes that actionable research findings with a Pacific lens will assist in addressing the serious challenges of climate mobility. The research aims to better inform government policy making, in support of effective, long-term and sustainable change.

She said it has been a privilege to work alongside colleagues in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau.

“The insights that have been shared with us show a deep understanding of the challenges faced by communities, as well as careful thought about future options."

The Pacific research methodologies they use build on shared kinship links and the use of local languages in the 16 community sites where research has taken place.

The first report anticipates that people while will move within, as well as away from their countries, the great majority of Pacific peoples will still be living and adapting to change in their home countries in 2050. The on-going population growth anticipated in most Pacific communities is expected to more than make up for the those who move out of their countries over the next coming 30 years.

Co-author Emeritus Professor Richard Bedford suggests in the report that looking at five different Pacific population clusters (Western Pacific, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, Northern Pacific and French Territories), rather than the traditional three (Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia), is a better way to understand the diversity and complexity of the Pacific.

More research reports, policy briefs and digital stories on climate mobility from the University of Auckland research team will be produced in the new year.

The research has been commissioned by the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, funded with New Zealand’s climate finance. This research is being carried out by the University of Auckland, the University of Waikato and Mana Pacific Consultants - a research team made up of Pacific researchers with strong Pacific knowledge, methodologies, relationships and networks.

Cook Islands News will interview Prof Underhill-Sem and Dr Newport for further insight this week.