While the Action Plan 2025-2030 for the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) and a couple of MoU’s between the Cook Islands and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been signed, Cook Islands local capacity and the political context needs to be examined more closely to understand some of the implications, writes Merita Tuari’i.

International CSPs and MoU’s are not necessarily legally binding; however potential contracts flowing from them can be, this is where pause on the Cook Islands side needs to be made.

Do Cook Islands’ institutions and the public service, civil society and business community really have the capacity to negotiate projects with China and provide strong oversight? Do they have the necessary integrity and accountability mechanisms? Does the country have the political will to renegotiate, pause or stop projects when they start to go south?

The track record shows that we do not, and this can mean that there is a risk our communities will lose out yet again to opaque deals and poorly implemented projects.

Australia’s Lowy Institute developed the Pacific Aid Map almost eight years ago tracking Chinese and other donors’ aid projects in the Pacific. The data shows that after a pause during the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2022 China’s total aid spending in the Pacific reached $256 million, returning it to second-place in overall aid volume to the Pacific following Australia.

While in the past China’s aid was predominantly loan-financed infrastructure, since the pandemic it has adjusted its approach, providing mostly grant-based aid. Many recent and new projects have also been smaller and more grassroots, however China’s tendency to do opaque deals, prefer elite partnerships and disregard debt sustainability frameworks continues.

The poor workmanship, poor oversight and accountability mechanisms in the building of the courthouse and police headquarters in Avarua, the TSA Stadium and Apii Nikao, along with ring-main construction in Phase 1 of Te Mato Vai are well-known. Although the Cook Islands government has stated in 2023 it is unlikely it will involve the Chinese state owned enterprise that was involved in these infrastructure projects again (see Cook Islands News article “Govt reveals CCECC deal: Geopolitical issues among reasons for dropped legal action”), there is not much of a guarantee that our leaders, organisations and communities have the negotiation, knowledge and skills to develop future contracts, oversee projects and adhere to integrity mechanisms.

The CSP aims to align to the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific and Te Ara ‘Akapapa’anga Nui National Sustainable Development Agenda 2020+. However, the implementation of both of these strategies is slow. And despite statements expressing pride in our Cook Islands identity and sovereignty and commitment to regionalism, the Cook Islands government was conspicuously silent when China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that landed in international waters between Kiribati and French Polynesia in October 2024, and after the recent firing of live rounds by China navy ships in the Tasman Sea.

It is not all doom, gloom and failure. There are some success stories of small state partnerships with China around the globe. These were successful because of increased local capacity, transparency enforcement and strong oversight on the side of the smaller state.

We are a high-income, large ocean state with direct access to opportunities in a developed state. We can improve our capacity, and this is where local research and development in all areas needs to be urgently prioritised to better inform negotiation, decision-making and policy formulation.

As an ex-official mentioned when we discussed the implementation stage of Te Mato Vai, “the devil is in the details”.

Let’s make sure we can catch the complexities and problems in our systems and in what we bind ourselves to in future so that we are not at risk of being taken advantage of in the detail, or worse.

• Merita Tuari’i is a Senior Research Fellow at Te Puna Vai Mārama Cook Islands Centre for Research.