The chances of a tropical cyclone hitting the Cook Islands are unlikely but the local weather office is urging people to prepare as the country enters the cyclone season, which starts next month through to April 2025.

The risk of tropical cyclone activity for the Southern Cook Islands is “reduced” and “unlikely” for the Northern Cook Islands, according to New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Metservice.

In the annual Tropical Cyclone Outlook released this week, their assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Southwest Pacific region for the coming season indicates normal to below normal activity.

However, they forecast that six to 10 named TCs could occur in the region from November 2024-April 2025. The long-term average number of named TCs per season is around nine.

According to the outlook, between three to four severe TCs reaching category three or higher may occur anywhere across the region.

For the Cook Islands, the risk of a tropical cyclone has been reduced to unlikely, though the country’s Meteorological Service cautions that anything is possible.

Maara Vaiimene, director of the Cook Islands Meteorological Service, says their analysis of the tropical cyclone outlook from NIWA aligns with the current ENSO condition, which is a Neutral Phase with weak La Niña-like conditions.

Vaiimene says this means sea surface temperatures are neither warmer nor cooler than average, reducing the likelihood of enhanced tropical cyclone formation.

The risk outlook has classified the Northern and Southern Cook Islands in that category, “however the TC Outlook prediction for both is zero to one developing within the EEZ of the Cook Islands”.

Based on historical tropical outlook, Vaiimene said the accuracy has been pretty good, with a success rate between 70 and 80 per cent.

“For example, the TC Outlook from October 2023 for the 2023/2024 Season, predicted TC for Cook Islands between two to three for the season, 2 x TC formed, TC Nat and TC Osai, and 1 x Tropical Depression (TD10F) formed within the EEZ of the Cook Islands,” he explained.

Vaiimene said past experiences have also seen that tropical low-pressure systems classified as Tropical Depression can develop and not reach TC status “but the impacts from these systems can be similar to that of a named TC system”.

“Such as TD10F during the 2023/2024 season that caused damages to some islands of the Southern Cooks,” he said. “That is why we continue to prepare for any weather-related event more so during this time as it is our TC Season.”

NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll told RNZ Pacific that island groups with reduced likelihood of tropical cyclones “tend to experience a couple of tropical cyclones per season”.

“So, even in a season where there is normal or reduced amounts of activity forecast, they can still have an impact from a system,” Noll said.

Vaiimene also reminded that even though the tropical cyclone season is from November to April, they can sometimes develop outside of the actual season.

He adds the message has always been the same and has not changed, “that is the community to stay vigilant knowing this is our TC season”.

“The message here is, we need to be aware that these outlooks is specifically for low-pressure systems that reaches TC status and becomes a named system,” Vaiimene reiterated.

“We all need to take time and look around our surroundings and identify any obstacles that could become a problem in the event of severe weather.

“Knowing this, is, our initial Early Warning System preparedness, these TC Outlook products, awareness messages through the media from EMCI,

Vodafone Directory supplements this preparedness.

“There is a vast amount of weather information, apps, and products, out there readily available to all; with improvement in technology, however the CIMS is available to help and assist if you have any enquires regarding our weather. We are open 24/7, contacts are in the current Vodafone directory.”