Drier conditions for most of the Cook Islands are forecast over the next three months, with potential for low water pressure, rationing and reduced water levels.

There is a potential for low water pressure, leading to water rationing and a need for water tanks in both the Southern and Northern Cook Islands over the next three months, warns the Cook Islands Meteorological Services.

The weather office says water levels are expected to decrease in both regions following the release of the latest weather watch report, which states the country is facing drier conditions in the coming months.

According to the report, the Southern Cook Islands is expected to experience drier conditions this month. The report states that there is a medium chance of very dry conditions for Palmerston, Aitutaki, Takutea, Manuae and Nga-Pu-Toru.

For the August to October period, the report predicts a medium chance of very dry conditions for the entire Southern Cook Islands.

For the same period (August to October 2024), the report predicts a medium chance of very dry conditions for the northern group island of Penrhyn and a medium chance of very wet conditions for Suwarrow and Nassau.

Based on the report’s forecast for the three-month period, the Cook Islands Meteorological Services says there will be low water pressure requiring water rationing in most parts of the country.

Household water tanks will be needed to ensure adequate supply for families as water levels are expected to drop in both the southern and northern Cook Islands.

Senior meteorological observer, Bates Manea said as the outlook and current conditions suggest, all islands in the Southern Cook Islands, except Rarotonga and Mangaia, which shows near normal, should expect drier than normal conditions for August and until October.

“Now this is largely due to the region just coming out of an El Nino event that ended earlier in April/May this year, and as we know that El Nino usually brings drier than normal conditions for us in the Southern Cooks, and the opposite is generally true for the Northern Cook Islands with them being wetter than normal,” Manea said.

Manea also said the preliminary rainfall figures so far for August 2024 indicated a total of 1.2 millimetres, which is quite dry.

“Please adhere to the advice and notices of our water management agency (To Tatou Vai) here on Rarotonga,” he said.

The Cook Islands, especially Rarotonga, has experienced chilly conditions lately, particularly in the evenings.
Manea said the coldest temperature so far this month was 14.4°C, recorded on August 13, 2024.

“Now I also do want to point out that this could change in the coming months, as all signs are indicating a possible upcoming La Nina (as seen in the report, with a La Nina watch) event later this year.”

In La Niña periods, the normal east-to-west winds become stronger, pushing warmer waters further west, according to BBC. This causes cold water to rise up - or “upwell” - from the depths of the ocean, meaning sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual in the east Pacific.

The weather office said they would continue to monitor the conditions with regional climate partners for further developments.